The Path to a Stanley Cup

3/24/2019

Some of us have been waiting our whole lives to see it. Imagine: a Blues win at the Enterprise Center and their captain, Alex Pietrangelo, hoists Lord Stanley’s Cup. After 52 years of pain for Blues fans, will this year be the year? After seeing the Blues go from worst in the league to one of the hottest teams in the NHL this season, what more could be said about their journey? I’d like to take an in depth look at what the Blues have lying ahead of them come April. Most of us agree that the current playoff system is flawed. We must play out of our division to get to the Western Conference Finals instead of a true seeding system. If we we were in a true seeding system, we would currently be matched against the Winnipeg Jets. Personally, I’d much rather play the Predators in the first round instead of the Jets. This is one of the first years that the playoff system has actually worked in the Blues favor because of the newly found strength in the Pacific.

The following predictions are assuming the Blues will play the highest available seed in each round.

With that being said, here is the 2019 path to a Stanley Cup for the St. Louis Blues:

Western Conference Quarterfinal : Nashville Predators

Introduction:

Let me preface this by saying that I cannot stand the Nashville Predators. In this current season, I see them as more of a rival than the Blackhawks.

Many things could happen before the end of the season that will have an impact on this matchup. Right now, the Blues would be playing 4 out of 7 games in Nashville. Based on the Blues’ current road record (20-12-6), that shouldn’t be a big issue. This rivalry will be ignited once again following the Blues’ Western Conference Finals loss two years ago to the Predators.

Here are the numbers:

Blues vs. Nashville this season: 4-1
November 21st @ Nashville: 1-4 loss
November 23rd vs Nashville: 6-2 win
February 9th: vs Nashville: 3-2 win
February 10th @ Nashville: 5-4 OT win
February 26th vs Nashville: 2-0 win
Goal differential: Blues +5 this season against Nashville

Other things to consider:

-Quickly after making aggressive trade deadline acquisitions in Wayne Simmonds and Mikael Granlund, the Blues shut out the Predators 2-0 in St. Louis.

-Since being acquired by Nashville, Simmonds has only produced two points (one goal and one assist) in 11 games. Mikael Granlund has four points (one goal and three assists) in 11 games with the Predators.

-Vladimir Tarasenko’s stats against the Predators this season: 4 goals, 2 assists, +2 rating

-Since the trade deadline, Nashville is 5-5-1.

Prediction: Blues in 6

Western Conference Semifinal: Winnipeg Jets

Introduction:

The Winnipeg Jets are, in one word, formidable. A top to bottom powerhouse with an excellent top line and a young goaltender, the Jets could cause nightmares for any potential playoff opponent. The Blues have not played them that well this season, but the playoffs means anything can happen.

Here are the numbers:

Blues vs Winnipeg this season: 1-2-1
October 4th: vs Winnipeg 1-5 loss
October 22nd: @ Winnipeg 4-5 OT loss
November 24th: vs Winnipeg 4-8 loss
December 1st: @ Winnipeg 1-0 win
Goal differential: Blues -8 this season against Winnipeg

Other things to consider:

-The Blues schedule against Winnipeg was front loaded. They have not played Winnipeg since December 1st. Since December 1st, the Blues are 31-14-5.

-Patrik Laine has 6 goals and 1 assist in 4 games against the Blues this year.

-The Jets have never played a game against Jordan Binnington. Binnington is 20-4-1 when he is the starter for the St. Louis Blues.

Prediction: Blues in 7

Western Conference Final: Calgary Flames

Introduction:

The Flames have a very young and talented front end. Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm, and the Hart trophy candidate Gaudreau are point per game players this season. They also have a talented more experienced defense led by Mark Giordano. The one place the Flames lack is goaltending. The Flames current GAA is 2.75. The Flames have outperformed all expectations coming into this season and currently lead the Western Conference in points. The Blues have played Calgary tough this season minus a huge loss on December 16th.

Here are the numbers:

Blues vs Calgary this season: 2-1
October 11th: vs Calgary 5-3 win
December 16th: vs Calgary 2-7 loss
December 22nd: @Calgary 3-1 win
Goal differential: Blues -1 this season against Calgary

Other things to consider:

-The Blues lost miserable due to a terrible showing from Jake Allen on December 16th. Allen posted a .750 save percentage before being pulled for Binnington.

-In 3 games this season against Calgary, Ryan O’Reilly is -5 and has no points.

-Vince Dunn is +3 with 3 assists against the Flames this season.

-The Blues have a forward group more experienced and balanced than Calgary.

Prediction: Blues in 6

Stanley Cup Final: Tampa Bay Lightning

Introduction:

I won’t sugarcoat it. The Lightning are one of the best teams the NHL has ever seen together on ice. They have a first line pacing to all have more than 90 points this season. Nikita Kucherov currently has 120 points and is the favorite to win the Hart Trophy. This team is so dominant, they clinched the President’s Trophy with 9 games left in their season. The Blues have played them inexplicably well.

Here are the numbers:

Blues vs. Tampa this season: 2-0
February 7th: @ Tampa Bay 1-0 OT win
March 23rd: vs Tampa Bay 4-3 win
Goal differential: Blues +2 this season against Tampa Bay

Other things to consider:

-The Blues have played teams in playoff contention better than non-playoff teams this season.

-Nikita Kucherov, the NHL’s top scorer, has been stifled against the Blues. He has a -2 rating and no points in 2 games against the Blues this year.

-Vladimir Tarasenko has a goal and two assists this season against the Lightning.

-The Lightning are clearly the most talented team in the NHL on paper. Will they suffer the common fate of early exits for President’s Cup winning teams?

Prediction: Blues in 7

Final Thoughts:
The Blues have been a different team since the new year. I believe they have a better chance than most think at winning the Stanley Cup this season. Call me an optimist, but since Jordan Binnington has taken over the Blues look virtually unbeatable. While I don’t think that the playoffs will take course exactly how I have it listed above, I designed this article to portray the worst possible path for the Blues based on seeding. I don’t think it is farfetched to say that if the Blues stay healthy, they could go on a miracle run from worst to first. With Gunnarsson and Edmundson coming back soon, we might finally get to see the Blues team that Doug Armstrong had in mind when this season began.

Peter Hempstead
@HempsteadPeter

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